LUBBOCK, TX — Oct. 10 marks 26 days until the Nov. 5 general election, when voters in the U.S. will choose the next president. For months, the mainstream media has declared the race too close to call.
However, clues are emerging from the campaigns of Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, and Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. Despite reports elsewhere, polls appear to be shifting in Trump’s favor.
The first clue comes from the Trump campaign, which released internal polling showing Trump leading in all key swing states. Winning Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada holds the keys to an Electoral College victory. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
The Trump campaign's internal poll, conducted by pollsters Tony Fabrizio and John McLaughlin, was released just before noon today. The poll, conducted between Oct. 6 and Oct. 9, surveyed 800 likely voters via landline, cell phones, SMS text messaging, and web interviews. The data for each state was weighted to reflect likely voter populations, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5% and a 95% confidence level.
| State | AZ | GA | MI | NV | NC | PA | WI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | 49% | 50% | 49% | 50% | 48% | 49% | 49% |
| Harris | 46% | 45% | 48% | 47% | 47% | 48% | 48% |
| Undecided | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% |
| Net Trump | +3% | +5% | +1% | +3% | +1% | +1% | +1% |
"This data projects President Trump at 312 electoral votes," Fabrizio said in the analysis. "More importantly, President Trump is at or near 50% in virtually all these states."
The Trump campaign's internal polling mirrors leaked poll numbers allegedly from the Harris campaign. While these leaked numbers are not verified, political journalist Mark Halperin claimed to have seen internal data that aligns with the leaks on X (formerly Twitter).
| State | Harris |
|---|---|
| WI | 49.6% |
| NE-2 | 52.2% |
| PA | 48.0% |
| MI | 48.8% |
| NV | 51.4% |
| GA | 46.6% |
| AZ | 46.7% |
| NC | 46.8% |
"In private polling, she’s got a problem," Halperin said, adding that Harris campaign officials likely want to see her up at least 3% nationally. A 3% lead would give her a chance to win the Electoral College, but it puts her campaign on the bubble. Ideally, she would need to be polling 4% ahead nationally. However, national polling is not trending in her favor. Rasmussen Reports had Trump up by 4% nationally in its daily tracking poll on Oct. 10.
Halperin emphasized that Democrats should be concerned about three Rust Belt states. "Pennsylvania is tough for Harris right now," he said. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Harris by one point, according to the Oct. 10 Trump internals, which align with the leaked Harris internals.
Halperin also noted that Harris is trailing by 3 points in Wisconsin, although Trump’s internal polls show a tighter race.
"Private polling shows Harris is in serious trouble," Halperin said. "PA, MI, WI, AZ, NC, and GA are particularly vulnerable for her. Nevada is the only state where she’s performing well."
Halperin questioned, "Why would a campaign share internal data when it’s down?"
One reason could be to alert down-ballot candidates in Rust Belt states. For example, in Pennsylvania, Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey is watching Republican challenger David McCormick close the gap, with McCormick now within 2 points, according to the latest poll. The RealClearPolitics average, which incorporates older polls, shows Casey with a more comfortable 3.9% lead.
In Michigan's U.S. Senate race, Republican Mike Rogers has also narrowed the gap, pulling within 2 points of Democrat Elissa Slotkin in the RealClearPolitics average.
Trouble for Harris and the Democrats in the Rust Belt could also benefit Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is leading his Democratic challenger, Collin Allred, by just 5 points. Allred is currently outspending Cruz on advertising, but that may change as Democratic funds shift to the Rust Belt to protect vulnerable candidates, potentially leaving Texas behind.
"If Harris loses any Rust Belt state, it becomes very difficult for her," Halperin said. "Things are not moving in her favor."
Blurred image of Donald Trump after taking an assassin's bullet. It is blurred to obscure the photo on Facebook, that seems to censor all things about Trump.
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